Bayesian statistical approach for protein residue-residue contact prediction

Despite continuous efforts in automating experimental structure determination and systematic target selection in structural genomics projects, the gap between the number of known amino acid sequences and solved 3D structures for proteins is constantly widening. While DNA sequencing technologies are advancing at an extraordinary pace, thereby constantly increasing throughput while at the same time reducing costs, protein structure determination is still labour intensive, time-consuming and expensive. This trend illustrates the essential importance of complementary computational approaches in order to bridge the so-called sequence-structure gap. About half of the protein families lack structural annotation and therefore are not amenable to techniques that infer protein structure from homologs. These protein families can be addressed by de novo structure prediction approaches that in practice are often limited by the immense computational costs required to search the conformational space for the lowest-energy conformation. Improved predictions of contacts between amino acid residues have been demonstrated to sufficiently constrain the overall protein fold and thereby extend the applicability of de novo methods to larger proteins. Residue-residue contact prediction is based on the idea that selection pressure on protein structure and function can lead to compensatory mutations between spatially close residues. This leaves an echo of correlation signatures that can be traced down from the evolutionary record. Despite the success of contact prediction methods, there are several challenges. The most evident limitation lies in the requirement of deep alignments, which excludes the majority of protein families without associated structural information that are the focus for contact guided de novo structure prediction. The heuristics applied by current contact prediction methods pose another challenge, since they omit available coevolutionary information. This work presents two different approaches for addressing the limitations of contact prediction methods. Instead of inferring evolutionary couplings by maximizing the pseudo-likelihood, I maximize the full likelihood of the statistical model for protein sequence families. This approach performed with comparable precision up to minor improvements over the pseudo-likelihood methods for protein families with few homologous sequences. A Bayesian statistical approach has been developed that provides posterior probability estimates for residue-residue contacts and eradicates the use of heuristics. The full information of coevolutionary signatures is exploited by explicitly modelling the distribution of statistical couplings that reflects the nature of residue-residue interactions. Surprisingly, the posterior probabilities do not directly translate into more precise predictions than obtained by pseudo-likelihood methods combined with prior knowledge. However, the Bayesian framework offers a statistically clean and theoretically solid treatment for the contact prediction problem. This flexible and transparent framework provides a convenient starting point for further developments, such as integrating more complex prior knowledge. The model can also easily be extended towards the Derivation of probability estimates for residue-residue distances to enhance the precision of predicted structures

Bayesian statistical approach for protein residue-residue contact prediction

Despite continuous efforts in automating experimental structure determination and systematic target selection in structural genomics projects, the gap between the number of known amino acid sequences and solved 3D structures for proteins is constantly widening. While DNA sequencing technologies are advancing at an extraordinary pace, thereby constantly increasing throughput while at the same time reducing costs, protein structure determination is still labour intensive, time-consuming and expensive. This trend illustrates the essential importance of complementary computational approaches in order to bridge the so-called sequence-structure gap. About half of the protein families lack structural annotation and therefore are not amenable to techniques that infer protein structure from homologs. These protein families can be addressed by de novo structure prediction approaches that in practice are often limited by the immense computational costs required to search the conformational space for the lowest-energy conformation. Improved predictions of contacts between amino acid residues have been demonstrated to sufficiently constrain the overall protein fold and thereby extend the applicability of de novo methods to larger proteins. Residue-residue contact prediction is based on the idea that selection pressure on protein structure and function can lead to compensatory mutations between spatially close residues. This leaves an echo of correlation signatures that can be traced down from the evolutionary record. Despite the success of contact prediction methods, there are several challenges. The most evident limitation lies in the requirement of deep alignments, which excludes the majority of protein families without associated structural information that are the focus for contact guided de novo structure prediction. The heuristics applied by current contact prediction methods pose another challenge, since they omit available coevolutionary information. This work presents two different approaches for addressing the limitations of contact prediction methods. Instead of inferring evolutionary couplings by maximizing the pseudo-likelihood, I maximize the full likelihood of the statistical model for protein sequence families. This approach performed with comparable precision up to minor improvements over the pseudo-likelihood methods for protein families with few homologous sequences. A Bayesian statistical approach has been developed that provides posterior probability estimates for residue-residue contacts and eradicates the use of heuristics. The full information of coevolutionary signatures is exploited by explicitly modelling the distribution of statistical couplings that reflects the nature of residue-residue interactions. Surprisingly, the posterior probabilities do not directly translate into more precise predictions than obtained by pseudo-likelihood methods combined with prior knowledge. However, the Bayesian framework offers a statistically clean and theoretically solid treatment for the contact prediction problem. This flexible and transparent framework provides a convenient starting point for further developments, such as integrating more complex prior knowledge. The model can also easily be extended towards the Derivation of probability estimates for residue-residue distances to enhance the precision of predicted structures

LocTree3 prediction of localization

The prediction of protein sub-cellular localization is an important step toward elucidating protein function. For each query protein sequence, LocTree2 applies machine learning (profile kernel SVM) to predict the native sub-cellular localization in 18 classes for eukaryotes, in six for bacteria and in three for archaea. The method outputs a score that reflects the reliability of each prediction. LocTree2 has performed on par with or better than any other state-of-the-art method. Here, we report the availability of LocTree3 as a public web server. The server includes the machine learning-based LocTree2 and improves over it through the addition of homology-based inference. Assessed on sequence-unique data, LocTree3 reached an 18-state accuracy Q18 = 80 ± 3% for eukaryotes and a six-state accuracy Q6 = 89 ± 4% for bacteria. The server accepts submissions ranging from single protein sequences to entire proteomes. Response time of the unloaded server is about 90 s for a 300-residue eukaryotic protein and a few hours for an entire eukaryotic proteome not considering the generation of the alignments. For over 1000 entirely sequenced organisms, the predictions are directly available as downloads. The web server is available at http://www.rostlab.org/services/loctree3

Synthetic protein alignments by CCMgen quantify noise in residue-residue contact prediction.

Compensatory mutations between protein residues in physical contact can manifest themselves as statistical couplings between the corresponding columns in a multiple sequence alignment (MSA) of the protein family. Conversely, large coupling coefficients predict residue contacts. Methods for de-novo protein structure prediction based on this approach are becoming increasingly reliable. Their main limitation is the strong systematic and statistical noise in the estimation of coupling coefficients, which has so far limited their application to very large protein families. While most research has focused on improving predictions by adding external information, little progress has been made to improve the statistical procedure at the core, because our lack of understanding of the sources of noise poses a major obstacle. First, we show theoretically that the expectation value of the coupling score assuming no coupling is proportional to the product of the square roots of the column entropies, and we propose a simple entropy bias correction (EntC) that subtracts out this expectation value. Second, we show that the average product correction (APC) includes the correction of the entropy bias, partly explaining its success. Third, we have developed CCMgen, the first method for simulating protein evolution and generating realistic synthetic MSAs with pairwise statistical residue couplings. Fourth, to learn exact statistical models that reliably reproduce observed alignment statistics, we developed CCMpredPy, an implementation of the persistent contrastive divergence (PCD) method for exact inference. Fifth, we demonstrate how CCMgen and CCMpredPy can facilitate the development of contact prediction methods by analysing the systematic noise contributions from phylogeny and entropy. Using the entropy bias correction, we can disentangle both sources of noise and find that entropy contributes roughly twice as much noise as phylogeny